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" polling jedi nate silver who in 2008 correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states. but you know what they say, even a stopped clock is right 98% of the time. the silver's got a computer model that uses petroleum bo jumbo like weighted polling average, trend line adjustment and linear regression analysisment but ignores proven methodologies like flag pin size, handshake strength and intensity of debate glare. and as of tonight, folks, silver is predicting that obama has an 86.3% chance of winning re-election. (cheers and applause) >> stephen: yeah. i don't buy it either. where does he get off predicting something other than the agreed narrative? i mean what part of razor tight does he not understand? (laughter) that just makes me so crab claw angry. (laughter) now folks, i am not the only one tarnishing silver's sterling reputation. (laughter) (applause) no, so is jo sqlo starbucks with mika and the morning willie. >> nate silver says this is a 73.6% chance that the president is going to win. anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a toss up right now is such an idealogue they shoul
>> nate cohen is crunching the numbers. >> i'm krystal ball. from coffins to clintons to celebrities and big bird. which ad didn't fly with voters? >> i'm s.e. cupp. it's a matter of hours until we know whether mitt romney is moving to 1600 pennsylvania avenue. >> just 1,462 days to election day 2016. hillary clinton you're the next contestant, come on down. i'm ahead of myself. you're in "the cycle" for monday, november 5th. >> this is it. t mif minus one day and counting. tomorrow the talking ends while people vote and the counting begins. the what kind of election will 2012 be? we know the polls nationwide show a virtual tie. we know that polls in the big battleground states give the president a small but persistent edge. there are gaps with each campaign, gender, enthusiasm, race and income. today we compare 2012 with three previous elections, 1980, 2000 and 2004. in 2004 it was a turnout election and a change of 70,000 votes in ohio would have meant president kerry. in 2000 gore won popt lar vote but bush prespraled in the electoral college. 1980 was thought fairl
much. >> thanks guys. hang in there. >> thank you. from biggy small to nate dog. right ahead nate the number cruncher is take a break from his saturday cartoons and talks about what he calls the popular vote nightmare. i'm done! "are you a cool mom?" i'm gonna find out. [ female announcer ] swiffer wetjet's pads are better than ever. now they have the scrubbing power of mr. clean magic eraser so you don't have to get down on your hands and knees to scrub away tough, dried-on stains. hey, do you guys think i'm "momtacular" or "momtrocious"? ♪ [ female announcer ] swiffer. now with the scrubbing power of mr. clean magic eraser. >>> with the aftermath of sandy possibly affecting voter turnout in the traditionally blue northeast another storm forecast in the area election forecasters fear we may have a popular vote electoral college split. you've heard that possibility first floated by someone who is wearing gray sweaters all week on this show a while back. nate cohen is taking it a step further. he laid out a detailed scenario, vote turnout nightmare. let me ask you first about the
's like a beatles record not a herman hermit's record. obama is going to win. i think piling nate silver and all these people. it seems like he is right. >> greg: do you think it's close or not even close? >> i think it's close but not as close as lot of pundits are letting on. dick morris says it's going to be landslide for homicidal. i don't know what planet dick morris is living on. i just choose the opposite. i know he is friend of yours. >> greg: we go wai back, we lived in a camper for six years, it didn't work out. bernie, do you agree? >> now that governor christie has stuck his share in mitt romney it's going to be an obama landslide. i just wonder this nate silver came out of no one. not only is dork but degenerate gambler and probably not. i'm sure he does. [ laughter ] >> thank you for helping us. >> that was better. >> according to you, he is. >> taught me how to say things. >> does he x, not that he doesn't. >> and i've been doing this show for five years. >> great version of the journalist question. >> i think you use a period after that. >> all right. >> before i get to y
, the president of the u.s.a., the united states of arithmetic, nate silver will be joining us ( cheers and applause ) it was a big night last night. the big news, of course, president barack obama not just re-elected but seemingly given fresh batteries. >> we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. ry are and forever will be the united states of america. and together, with your help, and god's grace, we will continue our journey forward. ( laughter ). >> jon: so that's all it took for to you get back in the groove was the fact that you never have to run for president again? ( laughter ) that's all it took? ( cheers and applause ) of course, on the other side, governor mitt romney broke the bad news to his supporters before reluctantly being asked to pose for his family's yearly christmas card. ( laughter ). that is a good-looking bunch. it's like they-- the people that came in the frames. across the nation, the people spoke, legalizing gay marriage in maine and maryland. legalizing marijuana in washington state, and colorado-- ( cheers and applause ) gay marriage.
a nice one for you tonight. from "the new york times" 538 block, statistician all-star nate silver will be joining us on the show. [cheering and applause] and then tomorrow night it's president barack obama. but still... [laughter] these people get to... [cheering and applause] nate silver, the president of statistician-stan. as you know, last night the presidential cam pan headed to hofstra university where the candidates debated from a diverse crowd hard of long islanders ranging from italian guys to other italian guys to a jewish guy and his mom. [laughter] such diversity in long island. the first question somehow ended up on the auto industry rescue. >> i know you keep saying, you want to take detroit bankrupt. well, the president took detroit bankrupt. you took general motors bankrupt. you took chrysler bankrupt. that was pre-sizely what i recommended and ultimately what happened. >> jon: okay. in fact, obama's publicly financed detroit auto industry managed bankruptcy is not precisely what romney recommended. romney precisely recommended private credit, which at the time was
times" political blog, please welcome back to the program, mr. nate silver. ( cheers and applause ) ♪ ♪ nice to see you again. >> thank you, jon. >> jon: so, obviously, i think with the election results last night, do you want to offer an apology? ( laughter ) >> we missed the north dakota senate race. >> jon: yes, you did! ( laughter ) you said that republican rick burt would win. he lost. >> he lost. >> jon: you better get out of the bbuddy. last night, here is honestly how i felt-- i didn't know obama would win, romney would win, the country would survive either. what i was really concerned about last night was that if your prediction model had been wrong, that it would have been a defeat for arithmetic ( laughter ) and that they would have seized upon that to, like, i think then gravity would be up for grabs. >> sure. >> jon: is that how you viewed it, to some extent, dispassionately for math? >> it would have been bad, i think, because for some reason, 538 that came invested with this symbolic power and symbolic power isn't particularly rational, but it became a symb
predicted much of the 2008 outcome on what the numbers say this year. "the new york times" nate silver will join me. >>> how social media came into its own during sandy. what it means and how we connect. take a look how the stock market finished the week. back in a moment. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. >>> welcome back, he's been called a master of predictions, nate silver is the statistician famously led to a near perfect forecast of the 2008 election. his work accurately called the outcome of 49 out of 50 states and every senate race in contention. his 538 blog named for the total number of votes in the electoral college and new book "the signal and the noise." so many predictions fail but some don't. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> just a few days before the election day
-election nate spot straight ahead. [ male announcer ] do you have the legal protection you need? at legalzoom, we've created a better place to turn for your legal matters. maybe you want to incorporate a business you'd like to start. or protect your family with a will or living trust. legalzoom makes it easy with step-by-step help when completing your personalized document -- or you can even access an attorney to guide you along. with an "a" rating from the better business bureau legalzoom helps you get personalized and affordable legal protection. in most states, a legal plan attorney is available with every personalized document to answer any questions. get started at today. and now you're protected. now's a good time to think about your options. are you looking for a plan that really meets your needs? and your budget? as you probably know, medicare only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, t
me move on. i want to get to nate silver, he's predicting an obama victory on tuesday some of he got criticized by joe scarborough on msnbc and on twitter nate silver offered a $1,000 bet which later increased the $2,000 that will go to charity, if he's right, the money would go to charity. >> look. i think what nate silver does is a credit to journalism and i think a lot about people who say things off the top of their head about who's going to win or lose. on the ore hand, as a journalist you can't put money up for one or another even if it's going a charity. >> "new york times" can't have it both ways. they can't say on the one hand we're going to be the one with the journalistic ethics and be in line with the blogger who on a daily basis says personally, you know, occasionally steps over the line. >> i don't think -- >> but his blog is solid and transparent and has been very direct. >> that's the most important thing. it's transparent. go on the site. you can see most of what he does with his ail go rhythm. it's better than based on one's gut, but he should. have placed the bet.
, pennsylvania tomorrow. as of this hour, nate silver of the new york times 538 blog predicts that president obama will win 314, and mitt romney will win 227. the nate silver formula has increased the odds in favor of the president even more. i have very little faith in any of that, in any of the polling. it just feels and is in fact too close too call. >> it is. but the president has held a significant, small but significant lead in the key battleground states. and it is hard to see how mitt romney pieces together enough states to get to 270. if you look at ohio, if you look at wisconsin, if you look at nevada, if you look at iowa, the president has been consist eventually in the lead there. and romney basically has to run the table to even have a shot. >> but the republican argument, ari, which was the john kerry argument, which has always been the argument in these situations, is when the incumbent polls below 50, the incumbent is in danger no matter what the other number is. so if the incumbent is at 48, the challenger is at 46, the chal enner is probably in a better position, most of th
. >>> forget barack obama and mitt romney. there's another star in this election. his name? nate silver, the blogger who accurately predicted the election's outcome. we talked to him about method to his menace. when i was in middle america, i was shocked at how many people said, do you know nate silver? >> his name is really catching fire. i said i don't want to insult you, can i call you a nerd or what would you call yourself? he said, yeah. he's becoming what of a celebrity. his blog called 538 which represents the number of electoral votes is becoming the one to watch come election time. >> reporter: president obama may have been the big winner this week, but coming in a close second, new york blogger, status stigs and self-described geek, nate silver. >> lord and god of the al ra rhythm. >> reporter: silver's 538 blog was pretty close to perfect in predicting the result. he nailed the outcome in all 50 states. >> when you were a kid, did you have all the answers? >> i think i always had a lot of questions. that's what smart people do. >> reporter: looking for a better way to pick th
of presidential elections. >> well, we try not to overwhelm people too much with information. >> reporter: nate silver and the univac, later this sunday morning. >> osgood: comic actor jack black is not on the ballot this coming tuesday, but in hollywood there's already talk that his most recent role just may put him in the running for the industry's highest honor. this morning, lee cowan will vis jack black. >> reporter: this is the jack black we're used to seeing. not this jack black. >> it was a risk. i didn't know how people would feel about me as a murderer, you know. usually i'm playing a soft and cuddly. >> reporter: jack black rocks a totally different and some say potentially oscar-worthy role later on sunday morning. >> osgood: the coming attraction at one world famous theater is aimd at an audience far beyond its walls and headed for a theater near you. anthony mason take us back stage. >> reporter: when he came up with the idea of broadcasting the metropolitan opera live to movie theaters around the world, peter gelb wanted to cover opera like an olympic event. what were you thinkin
nervous today than mitt romney and barack obama is nate silver at "the new york times." he's either going to be who let the dogs out of political pundit or the wonder kid of our generation. when you put on the "new york times" in a close election a guy as a 92% chance of winning the day of the election, that's gutsy. i think him and a lot of respected forecasters and those that went all in on the president winning, and you have the conservative punditry and fox news crowd looking at the exact same data and told the audiences two different things. >> what about you? you fought for romney to lose the primary in your state. here's the day of reckoning. i don't care about nate silver and everybody else. what about you, the guy who is a conservative and republican and as of last week you weren't sure you were voting for governor romney or at least that's what you told me. >> if your mainstream media polling is as accurate as it was the last two campaign cycles, and it was about 96% accurate. if it's an accurate as it was, barack obama will get elected again tonight. >> if obama wins -- >> let
the numbers say this year. nate silver will join me. and the big buzz during the big storm, how social media came in to play during hurricane sandy. take a look at how the stock market ended the week. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] do you have the legal protection you need? at legalzoom, we've created a better place to turn for your legal matters. maybe you want to incorporate a business you'd like to start. or protect your family with a will or living trust. legalzoom makes it easy with step-by-step help when completing your personalized document -- or you can even access an attorney to guide you along. with an "a" rating from the better business bureau legalzoom helps you get personalized and affordable legal protection. in most states, a legal plan attorney is available with every personalized document to answer any questions. get started at today. and now you're protected. ke a closer look...ed at today. the best schools in the world... see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge o
turnout and women and young people. >> bill: oops! ok, at least they admit it. the guy who won't? nate scarborough who said nate silver is a joke. oh right be he got 50 out of 50 right. so here's nate silver on the daily show. >> what was surprising to me is that before the election, people who were not just predicting romney will eke it out in ohio, to come to that conclusion, you are a little out of touch. >> with reality. elbow of the day nate silver? there you go.
in the popular vote, twice. the guy who predicted this outcome, almost exactly, is nate silver, of course, who writes the political statistics blog, 538 at "the new york times." for accurately predicting, it appears, the exact outcome of the race, and i mean down to every single state. we'll see about florida. nate was, of course, pilloried, pilloried on the right and by right-leaning beltway media types, including politico for having the audacity to print what his poll averages told him was about to happen. but nate was right, the polls were right, even without florida being decided, we now know that president obama won in pretty much exactly the way the state-by-state polls said he was going to win. he won with more than 300 electoral votes. it was not magic, it was just math. math that was completely invisible to the political right. >> i believe the minimum result will be 53-47 romney, over 300 electoral votes, and the republicans will pick up the senate. i base that on just years and years of experience. >> the wild card and what i've projected, i'm projecting minnesota to go for ro
as they used to be. plus, "the new york times" nate silver seeing gold. he named his election night prediction, and now it's paying off apparently big-time. it's just one of the things we thought you should know. [ tylenol bottle ] nyquil what are you doing? [ nyquil bottle ] just reading your label. relieve nasal congestion? sure don't you? [ nyquil bottle ] dude! [ female announcer ] tylenol® cold multi-symptom nighttime relieves nasal congestion. nyquil® cold and flu doesn't. >>> jesse jackson, jr. is reportedly discussing a plea deal in the federal investigation against him for alleged misuse of campaign funds. if jackson pleads guilty, he has to step down from office. he was, in fact, just re-elected. he is on medical leave since june for mental health issues. the fbi says he used campaign money to decorate his home. if jackson is forced to step down, a new election would have to be called. >>> stocks are slipping on wall street again one day after the pow posted the biggest one-day drop of the year. they say worries about europe's problems and the expected gridlock in washin
'll be talking to the "washington post's" eugene robinson. also, author nate silver will be here. >> that'll be fun. >> i'm not going to ask for an apology. >> who's the guyen o the right? >> this guy on the right. >> handsome devil. >> he is. senior adviser to open society foundation morton haleprin. >> is he relation? >> distant relation. >> i'm going on one of those websites with the genealogy. >> it's a daddy moment for mark haleprin. up next, speaking of daddy moments, he has women coming up to him all the time -- >> wow. >> -- saying. >> i can't believe you did that. what is the reaction? >> and little kids coming up going, daddy. daddy. and you know what? you know what's damning for him, you don't need the dna test. they all wear these little cheese hats. >> mini cheese heads. >> up next, the only journalist in washington, d.c. that has paternity insurance, jim vandehei. sort of the mcjagger of politico, is he, willie? he's got the stories in the playbook, but first here's bill karins with a check on the forecast. i'm not going there with bill because he always says something even
for that if you're relying on a voter mechanism, which is what nate silver was saying in that clip, how does that work? why should we believe that your enthusiasm and past voting is going to be indicative of the voting. >> eliot: it used to be that there was only was only the polling, what happened to them. >> gallup said they don't have a definitive answer and they're going to be looking at their administration. the one thing with gallup, they were calling cell phones and following most of the methodology that others are, so it's hard to gauge. i will say that it's more than their likely voter model. we're going to have a report looking into at some point soon about this at "huffington post." i think there is something about the way they were sampling the adults, not just the whole likely voter. >> eliot: i think they were using a phone book from 1968. senior polling editor for the "huffington post," thank you for coming on the program. >> thank you very much. >> eliot: for the political impact of the polls, good, bad and ugly on the 2012 election, i'm joined by tina dupuy and eric bolert.
is going to win, nate silver, editor of the 538 calculus blog for "the new york times." he's also the author of the book "the signal and the noise" why most predictions fail, but some don't. thank you for being here. >> thank you, rachel. >> a lot of headlines say that since mitt romney is going to pennsylvania, that must mean that pennsylvania is in play. from the numbers, do you believe pennsylvania is in play? >> you had the list of 24 polls and none had romney ahead. there have been some polls, some by the state republican committee in pennsylvania that have romney up a couple of points there but no public pollster has had him with a lead all year. so it's not just that obama is up there, but it's a state where it's been very stable and very consistent in the polling. i think it might be more in play because i don't think they are conceding ohio. but they're worried about it and they need maybe a better plan "b" potentially. >> have you ever seen, or is there even at least sort of a famous circumstance in which all the polls consistently all year long pointed in one direction,
. -- nate silvers nailed it. is going to be a player. he could be a republican supreme court nominee if not a candidate for president. >> tell us more about cruz. >> is the third of former supreme court clerks to be serving in the senate along with blumenthal and lee. he is one of the smartest politicians lie have never covered and he is one of the best debaters i have never seen. you can tell it was a champion debater at princeton. he's very conservative. he is parts irish, italian, and cuban. he is the first hispanic senator exas.taxes -- from taxe he can speak to hispanics in every conservative way, but he can also reach out to conservative republicans and anglo republicans are very comfortable with him. who is your biggest turkey coming or be a loser? but the castro brothers also from texas are stars. one is in congress and one is a mayor. >> joaquin castro, i loved your speech. [laughter] >> they are identical. >> i hope he reaches out to senator kreuz very quickly. simon rosenberg at the new democrat the network has been researching, studying coming and telling us about the gro
eight, the petitioners are responsible for freeing of litter and with sufficient power and emlum nate and easily discernible of all personos the premises. no noise shall be audible beyond the area and control of the licensee as defined on the abc form 257. finally number 11, no one under 21 serve furnish or sell alcoholic beverages. thank you. >> thank you very much. is the applicant here? any public comment on this item? mr. yep. >> good morning supervisors. i notice on today's agenda there are actually three items dealing with liquor license so if i was a tourist of san francisco i would say that in san francisco, at least in relation to this committee there is nothing going on in san francisco except liquor licenses and we all know that is definitely not true. i would like to make a recommendation on two subject matters which in my opinion the city and county of san francisco has not done enough. number one, the obvious one, child pornography. the federal government has been cracking down on california but i don't see too much activity in san francisco and number two, the
Search Results 0 to 49 of about 399 (some duplicates have been removed)